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title="數(shù)控文章" href="/bethel/news">數(shù)控文章</a></li> </ol> </nav> </div> <!--/sub_menu--><!-- 面包屑導(dǎo)航結(jié)束 --> <!-- 頁面標(biāo)題開始 --> <div id="n1l1njb9b" class="title"> <h3><a>風(fēng)險評估技術(shù)國內(nèi)外研宄現(xiàn)狀<small></small></a></h3> </div> <!-- 頁面標(biāo)題結(jié)束 --> <hr class="featurette-divider"> <!-- 中部開始 --> <div id="n1l1njb9b" class="container"> <!-- 正文 --> <div id="n1l1njb9b" class="lead" id="print"> <p> <span style="font-family: 宋體; font-size: 9pt; letter-spacing: 0pt; text-indent: 24pt;">“風(fēng)險”理論源于十九世紀(jì)后期的經(jīng)濟學(xué)研宄，如今已被用于各個社會科 學(xué)及自然科學(xué)領(lǐng)域。</span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 9pt; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">風(fēng)險表示研究對象遭受危害或損失的可能性</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[74]</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">，雖然不同的研究對象或?qū)W 科領(lǐng)域?qū)τ陲L(fēng)險的定義各不相同，但是對于風(fēng)險的研宄主要包含三個要素：目標(biāo)事件的過程及狀態(tài)、事件的概率及事件的影響后果，這三個要素也被稱為風(fēng) 險的三兀概念</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[75]</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">。之所以要進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評估是希望在事前就能得到對象的風(fēng)險預(yù) 報信息，在此基礎(chǔ)上通過風(fēng)險決策等行動最大程度地減少因為風(fēng)險而帶來的各 種損失。</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">MontagueD</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">.</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">F</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[76]</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">將風(fēng)險評估方法分為3類：定性的、半定量的及定量的風(fēng) 險評估方法。評估方法的選擇主要取決于風(fēng)險分析過程中可獲得的信息量的多 少。不同的風(fēng)險評估方法在分析問題的深度、廣度上都是不一樣的。</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">定性風(fēng)險分析是一種典型的模糊分析方法，可以快捷地對資源、威脅、脆 弱性進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)評估，并對現(xiàn)有的防范措施進(jìn)行評價；從主觀的角度對風(fēng)險成分 進(jìn)行排序，因此常被首選。定量風(fēng)險分析是按照設(shè)備的更新費用，每個資源、 沖擊的費用，每次威脅攻擊的定量頻次，為資源、威脅和脆弱性提供的一套系 統(tǒng)分析手段；分析所形成的量化值，將被用來計算年度損失概率。定量分析方 法對風(fēng)險的量化，大大增加了與運行機制和各項規(guī)范、制度等緊密結(jié)合的可操 作性，分析的目標(biāo)能夠更加具體準(zhǔn)確，其可信度顯然會大大增加，這必將為應(yīng) 急計劃的制定，提供更可信賴的依據(jù)</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[77]</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">。</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">定性的風(fēng)險評估方法主要有危險檢查法、危險和可操作性分析法</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">(</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">HAZOP</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)、 </span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">專家調(diào)查法、失效模式及影響分析方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">FMEA</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">和失效模式及影響危害度分 析方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">FMECA</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">等。故障樹分析方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">FTA</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)、</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">事件樹分析方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">ETA</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">既可 用于定性分析也可用于定量分析。概率風(fēng)險評估方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">PRA</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">) </span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[78]</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">是定性、定量 相合，以定量分析為主的風(fēng)險評價方法。此外，系統(tǒng)工程中的層次分析法</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">AHP</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)、 </span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">模糊綜合評判法</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">FCE</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">也是風(fēng)險評估中常用方法。但層次分析法中定性成分 較大，指標(biāo)過多致使計算復(fù)雜；模糊綜合評價法雖能解決評價指標(biāo)模糊性問題， 但沒考慮指標(biāo)間的相關(guān)性問題；故有些學(xué)者引入貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">BN</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">) </span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="15" style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[79]</span><span id="n1l1njb9b" class="15" style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 9pt;">方法融合 </span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">有向因果圖和概率論進(jìn)行風(fēng)險分析。</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">風(fēng)險評估在風(fēng)險分析過程中占有極其重要的地位，如何對系統(tǒng)的各種危險 及其產(chǎn)生原因進(jìn)行綜合分析、評估，并提出合理、有效的控制風(fēng)險的方案，使 系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險層次盡可能降低是一項十分重要和有意義的工作。系統(tǒng)工程風(fēng)險評 估方法已經(jīng)取得很大進(jìn)展，但仍存在三個主要技術(shù)難點，一是評價對象的相關(guān) 性處理，二是事件機理的不確定性分析，三是人因可靠性分析，所以需要開展 新的風(fēng)險評估技術(shù)研究。</span><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:13.1500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">本文</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family: 宋體;mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language:AR-SA"><a ><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">加工中心</span></a></span></b><span style="font-family: 宋體; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">故障風(fēng)險評估主要涉及評價對象的故障相關(guān)性問題，需要根 據(jù)具體關(guān)聯(lián)情況綜合考慮各種可能的因素進(jìn)行綜合評價。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">本文采摘自“基于故障率相關(guān)的加工中心的可靠性及風(fēng)險評估”，因為編輯困難導(dǎo)致有些函數(shù)、表格、圖片、內(nèi)容無法顯示，有需要者可以在網(wǎng)絡(luò)中查找相關(guān)文章！</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:9.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:13.1500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt; font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">本文由伯特利數(shù)控整理發(fā)表文章均來自網(wǎng)絡(luò)僅供學(xué)習(xí)參考，轉(zhuǎn)載請注明！</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:9.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; 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